by Zadie Neufville
First published December 2020 in CESaRE Impacts
A recent study examining the impacts of land use and climate change on soil erosion by water is bringing attention to the potential effects of land degradation on freshwater supplies, food security and sanitation which is likely to be worse as a result of climate change.
When Pasquale Borelli et al. (2020) combined a long-established soil erosion model with the scenarios from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, he intended to help policymakers and modellers better understand the potential impact of soil erosion in the future.
He also hoped to provide information leaders would need to ‘explore’ the extent of future erosion, identify possible hotspots, and provide opportunities for leaders to work with stakeholders to mitigate the impacts.
Here in the region, the challenges loom as large today as they did in 2000 at the first meeting of the Caribbean Land and Water Resources Network which warned of the growing threat posed by human-induce soil erosion caused by, among other things, deforestation, unsuitable farming practises and construction. Of concern, the potential impacts of erosion on freshwater and marine resources, and the significant contribution to soil degradation.
Soil erosion is recognised by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as a primary cause of land degradation. In its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) pointed to the absence of political action at the global level, and highlighted the many impacts of soil erosion, including an increase in desertification and land degradation.
Borelli found, however, that if scientists are to provide more accurate forecasts, they would need access to additional data for many areas, including the Caribbean.
It seems then, that the study has exposed weaknesses that could impact future planning, but it gave sufficient information to provide insight into what is needed if leaders are to benefit from critical but accurate data. It also offers some insight into the challenges that could arise if the world continues to ignore soil erosion and its impacts in a changing climate.
The report’s authors noted: “The effect of climate change will likely be so pronounced that it will overwhelm the mitigation potential of adopting soil-conserving agricultural practices. Still, without a change in agricultural practices, the effect would be multiple times worse” (Borelli et al. 2020).
Notably, the report also provides an opportunity for modellers and policymakers to identify the current needs, and not only build more suitable tools and models, but to collect, convert and share the critical data in formats that will allow analysis to take place.
Stemming soil erosion is critical to the Caribbean’s success. A 2015 FAO report, the Status of the World’s Soil Resources noted: “soil erosion represents the greatest global threat to soil functions” (2015, FAO). In other words, erosion threatens food security, water quality, climate change and sustainable development.
It is therefore not surprising that this past summer, Jamaica increased its emissions target under the nationally determined contribution to include land-use change. The consensus is that reducing emissions and the factors relating to global warming and climate change must take into account human-induced land degradation and soil erosion.
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